Feature
2006 Predictions: The Lunch We All Wish We Had an Invite To
General Motors' chairman Rick Wagoner gets the boot. GM's product guru Bob Lutz finally retires. Las Vegas billionaire Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. takes a place on GM's board. The Chinese make their move on the U.S. automotive scene. Management changes at Ford — again. The new Fusion and Edge save Ford — for now — and the luxury group is dismantled. Toyota surpasses GM in worldwide sales. The Koreans set up a luxury channel à la Toyota's Lexus. Honda builds a V8 in something other than a racecar.
Those were just some of the predictions made by Detroit's "automotive experts" — a collection of automotive journalists, former journalists turned corporate, current and retired company flaks and an auto analyst — who meet annually and secretly to forecast what lies ahead the next year in the automotive world…and beyond.
This December marked the 37th Annual Predictions Lunch, a tradition that started in the late1960s when a number of national magazines had one-man (literally "man") outposts in Detroit's New Center area, once home to General Motors headquarters and distinguished by the majestic Fisher Building. The Detroit bureau chiefs for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report, Time, Popular Mechanics and now-defunct Look met frequently with reporters from automotive trade journals and occasional PR types for lunch, camaraderie, and inevitably gossip about what was happening in the auto industry as well as politics and sports.
At the time, Richard Nixon occupied the White House, and, with his VP Spiro Agnew, triggered plenty of conversation. So, too, did the romantic escapades of Henry Ford II who occupied the Glass House. As did John Z. DeLorean (who died in 2005), stirring things up at nearby GM, then being run by Ed Cole. Financial woes at Chrysler provided fodder for talks about every five years.
Eventually, the lunches evolved into an off-the-record, by-invite-only holiday tradition, organized by one of the group's original members, Jim Dunne, Detroit editor of Popular Mechanics, famous for his spy photographs of future vehicles. Dunne boasts that it's one of the hottest tickets in town as he turns down more requests by those who want to be invited than those who attend.
Always held at one of Detroit's finest eateries — usually ones located in neighborhoods with more vacant lots and abandoned buildings than occupied ones, this year's Predictions Lunch was held at the Ivanhoe, established and run by the same family since 1909 in Detroit's Polish section. (Dubbed the Polish Yacht Club before the age of political correctness, the landlocked establishment jokingly requires no member own a boat.)
This year's group of about 20 or so attendees included some of the original members, though about half are long gone. Over kielbasa, pierogi, beer and lots of laughs, Dunne recounts how miserably we predicted 2005's events. "Our performance was awful," he announces. In particular, he notes, we completely missed Delphi's bankruptcy filing that made front-page headlines in Detroit and the nation's business sections for months.
A few got some things right. One buff book editor correctly predicted DaimlerChrysler's Jürgen Schrempp would be out and Chrysler's Dieter Zetsche would be in. A business reporter rightly called that one of Detroit's Big Three would seek reopening of its UAW contract to stop health-care cost bleeding. An independent automotive journalist forecasted the run-up in petroleum prices that triggered a drop-off in sales of large SUVs.
Results of last year's quiz that asks specific questions about the auto industry showed nearly evenly split votes on most every question, such as GM and Ford gaining or losing market share, Toyota cresting or continuing to rise, and the Chinese selling cars in the U.S. "The results indicate that as a group, we're a bunch of fence-sitting non-declarers, no better at predicting the future than the folks we interview," says Dunne.
One by one, each expert in attendance stands and makes three predictions. Many are serious. Some are downright nonsense. Some are too raunchy for print. And a few are even poetic, in a silly sense. (One member of the group always regales with her predictions in limerick format.)
This year's predictions were heavy on hometown automakers GM and Ford — and Detroit's pathetic hometown Lions football team.
The general consensus appeared to be that GM chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner wouldn't last the year. Nor would Lutz, a couple said, adding he would fade out, not be ousted. Predictions ranged from GM filing bankruptcy or barely making it through the year without filing bankruptcy to a financial turnaround and rebound in market share.
Management changes at Ford — but not Chairman and CEO Bill Ford — were predicted. The sell-off of Jaguar and/or dismantling of Ford's Premier Automotive Group of luxury brands came up often. Yet, the group was high on Ford's newest products, the Fusion sedan and upcoming Edge CUV.
Toyota is expected to continue to climb and even surpass GM in worldwide sales. Yet, two prognosticators predict it won't be an easy road for Toyota, likely to get hurled with arrows on a number of subjects and by a number of parties.
Chrysler, instead of Mercedes, will announce it will sell Smart cars, a couple said.
One-off predictions included Hyundai/Kia creating a luxury car channel, Honda doing a V8 engine and a rear-wheel-drive flagship sedan, and Chinese companies gobbling up what's left of Detroit's giant but troubled parts makers, Delphi and Visteon.
And how about those Detroit Lions? The group is split on whether the team's controversial general manager will be around, but no one predicts the Lions to improve their dismal record much.
Those were just some of the predictions made by Detroit's "automotive experts" — a collection of automotive journalists, former journalists turned corporate, current and retired company flaks and an auto analyst — who meet annually and secretly to forecast what lies ahead the next year in the automotive world…and beyond.
This December marked the 37th Annual Predictions Lunch, a tradition that started in the late1960s when a number of national magazines had one-man (literally "man") outposts in Detroit's New Center area, once home to General Motors headquarters and distinguished by the majestic Fisher Building. The Detroit bureau chiefs for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report, Time, Popular Mechanics and now-defunct Look met frequently with reporters from automotive trade journals and occasional PR types for lunch, camaraderie, and inevitably gossip about what was happening in the auto industry as well as politics and sports.
At the time, Richard Nixon occupied the White House, and, with his VP Spiro Agnew, triggered plenty of conversation. So, too, did the romantic escapades of Henry Ford II who occupied the Glass House. As did John Z. DeLorean (who died in 2005), stirring things up at nearby GM, then being run by Ed Cole. Financial woes at Chrysler provided fodder for talks about every five years.
Eventually, the lunches evolved into an off-the-record, by-invite-only holiday tradition, organized by one of the group's original members, Jim Dunne, Detroit editor of Popular Mechanics, famous for his spy photographs of future vehicles. Dunne boasts that it's one of the hottest tickets in town as he turns down more requests by those who want to be invited than those who attend.
Always held at one of Detroit's finest eateries — usually ones located in neighborhoods with more vacant lots and abandoned buildings than occupied ones, this year's Predictions Lunch was held at the Ivanhoe, established and run by the same family since 1909 in Detroit's Polish section. (Dubbed the Polish Yacht Club before the age of political correctness, the landlocked establishment jokingly requires no member own a boat.)
This year's group of about 20 or so attendees included some of the original members, though about half are long gone. Over kielbasa, pierogi, beer and lots of laughs, Dunne recounts how miserably we predicted 2005's events. "Our performance was awful," he announces. In particular, he notes, we completely missed Delphi's bankruptcy filing that made front-page headlines in Detroit and the nation's business sections for months.
A few got some things right. One buff book editor correctly predicted DaimlerChrysler's Jürgen Schrempp would be out and Chrysler's Dieter Zetsche would be in. A business reporter rightly called that one of Detroit's Big Three would seek reopening of its UAW contract to stop health-care cost bleeding. An independent automotive journalist forecasted the run-up in petroleum prices that triggered a drop-off in sales of large SUVs.
Results of last year's quiz that asks specific questions about the auto industry showed nearly evenly split votes on most every question, such as GM and Ford gaining or losing market share, Toyota cresting or continuing to rise, and the Chinese selling cars in the U.S. "The results indicate that as a group, we're a bunch of fence-sitting non-declarers, no better at predicting the future than the folks we interview," says Dunne.
One by one, each expert in attendance stands and makes three predictions. Many are serious. Some are downright nonsense. Some are too raunchy for print. And a few are even poetic, in a silly sense. (One member of the group always regales with her predictions in limerick format.)
This year's predictions were heavy on hometown automakers GM and Ford — and Detroit's pathetic hometown Lions football team.
The general consensus appeared to be that GM chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner wouldn't last the year. Nor would Lutz, a couple said, adding he would fade out, not be ousted. Predictions ranged from GM filing bankruptcy or barely making it through the year without filing bankruptcy to a financial turnaround and rebound in market share.
Management changes at Ford — but not Chairman and CEO Bill Ford — were predicted. The sell-off of Jaguar and/or dismantling of Ford's Premier Automotive Group of luxury brands came up often. Yet, the group was high on Ford's newest products, the Fusion sedan and upcoming Edge CUV.
Toyota is expected to continue to climb and even surpass GM in worldwide sales. Yet, two prognosticators predict it won't be an easy road for Toyota, likely to get hurled with arrows on a number of subjects and by a number of parties.
Chrysler, instead of Mercedes, will announce it will sell Smart cars, a couple said.
One-off predictions included Hyundai/Kia creating a luxury car channel, Honda doing a V8 engine and a rear-wheel-drive flagship sedan, and Chinese companies gobbling up what's left of Detroit's giant but troubled parts makers, Delphi and Visteon.
And how about those Detroit Lions? The group is split on whether the team's controversial general manager will be around, but no one predicts the Lions to improve their dismal record much.
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