- Nearly two-thirds of global auto executives polled by KPMG expect consumer demand for all e-vehicles, from full hybrids to FCEVs, will be no more than 15 percent even by 2025.
- Industry executives in the United States and Western Europe expect even lower adoption rates, projecting e-vehicles will only account for 6-10 percent of global annual auto sales.
- Despite the tepid sales projections, 83 percent say automakers will increase investment in e-motor production, while 81 percent say investment in battery technology will rise. Only 76 percent expect increased investment in power electronics for e-cars, and 65 percent predict increased investment in fuel cell technology.
DETROIT — With electric cars, if you build it, they may come — but not any time soon.
According to a survey of global auto executives, released Thursday by consulting firm KPMG, consumer demand for all e-vehicles, from full hybrids to FCEVs, will still be modest even by 2025.
Despite heavy investment by automakers in e-vehicle technologies, nearly 65 percent of automotive executives expect e-car sales will not exceed 15 percent of annual global auto sales before 2025, according to KPMG's 13th annual global automotive survey.
Industry executives in the United States and Western Europe expect even lower adoption rates, projecting e-vehicles will only account for 6-10 percent of global annual auto sales.
Despite the tepid sales projections, 83 percent say automakers will increase investment in e-motor production, while 81 percent say investment in battery technology will rise. Only 76 percent expect increased investment in power electronics for e-cars, and 65 percent predict increased investment in hydrogen fuel cell technology.
Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of executives say the "optimization" (downsizing) of internal-combustion engines still offers greater efficiency and CO2 reduction potential than any electric vehicle technology based on the current energy mix.
"The industry faces a tough decision about whether to place more trust and resources in fuel cell or battery vehicle concepts, and these results show that it's way too early to call right now," said Gary Silberg, national automotive industry leader for KPMG, in a statement.
In last year's KPMG survey, execs predicted it would be more than five years before the industry is able to offer an electric vehicle that is as affordable as traditional-fuel vehicles for mainstream buyers.
For the 2012 survey, KPMG interviewed 200 corporate executives, including 25 from North America, representing vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, from October through November 2011.
Inside Line says: The spark is there but how will it fan out?
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says:
02:43 AM, 01/24/2012
Why pay for the electronics, batteries, etc and put up with the limited storage when you can have the fuel mileage AND all of the attributes we've come to know and love about our internal combustion engines?
http://www.illinoislemonlaw.com/
phybrr says:
11:57 PM, 01/08/2012
How many of you go driving across the country everyday? 95%
of my trips are less than 20 miles. I would welcome a compact
electric car that I can drive during the day and charge up in my
garage at night. I can keep my old fume generator for my Xmas
and Thanksgiving trips to grandmas. 50-80 mpg equivalent and
low maintenance would cut my transportation costs a huge amount.
Exxon and GM made us build superhighways and gas guzzlers
instead of mass transportation like Europe. Time for a change!
nissanmasttech says:
06:44 PM, 01/07/2012
There's no doubt that electric vehicles are bad for the automakers, being an auto technician I can see how electrics will take away money from service departments, no oil changes, regenerating brakes, fluid changes at 120k. When I look at the service history of some cars and see how much money was spent in repairs for emissions, exhaust, engine ect. most of which ev's don't have. Think of how much money automakers lose by not selling as many replacement parts. If you have seen the movie Who killed the electric car it may provide some insight as to why these cars may fail. I for one am trying to keep an open mind, it seems to me that there is a place for these vehicles if they are reasonably priced.
pisado says:
05:22 PM, 01/07/2012
Better battery tech will help everyone from smartphones to cars, just like the space program did to technology. The Fuel Cell will be the ultimate battery, as long as you supply the fuel it will power the EV forever vs a regular battery. Once the Fuel cell is developed in the car, it will move over to power homes, etc. Fossil Fuels will be around but their costs will keep rising. Electricity will keep rising also that is why we need multiple alternative ways to provide electricity. I would love to see a full size SUV diesel hybrid plug in that would develop 40 mpg. GM said their big profit makers are the SUV's so they could still have a good profit margin with the more expensive drivetrain.
motorstreet says:
05:41 PM, 01/06/2012
This means that EV's will never catch on, because by 2020 EU regulations will require small family cars to have lower emissions than EV's (due to the emissions from electricity production).
qdp says:
02:29 PM, 01/06/2012
Those execs are saying one thing while doing another. They are trying to cheat/fool each other by saying E-Vehicles is not so promising and at the same time they are tryinbg very hard to seek technology breakthrough or edge in that area.
A typical example is the Volvo. In 2009 youtube clip, Volvo said E C30 would be ready in 2015(viewers complained too long) and later said US market would have E c30 in 2012. Now it simply conjured out a much more sophisticated one, plug-in Diesel hybrid, which has never ever been disclosed in any forms. In this way, they are trying to outsmart each other.
wjtinatl says:
12:00 PM, 01/06/2012
This is one prediction everyone will get right! America is a huge country inhabited by people who've become accustomed to putting a key in the ignition and driving as far and as long as their Exxon or Visa card will take them, myself included. Spending 30-40k on a car that cannot go more than 50-100 miles before requiring a time consuming recharge just will not fly here, even if it does save fuel. That EV's have not been embraced in Europe or Asia with substantially higher fuel prices drives home the lack of a value equation. American's are ready for more economical vehicles and don't mind paying for them; as seen by the good sales of Hybrid's and high-quality compacts like the Focus, Cruze, etc. The lack of recharging infrastructure would indicate that neither private industry nor government feel there's a strong demand for EV's either.
jimmytheg says:
11:11 AM, 01/06/2012
Yeah. That and they are crap. Only so many smug, white, earthsavers with median incomes of over $100k to go around who can afford to waste their retirement dollars on these idiotic monuments to hubris and arrogance. Yeah, you're really part of the solution, Timmy! Meanwhile, the rest of the world laughs at suicide america.
a1c_scg says:
10:18 AM, 01/06/2012
Yeah, well those numbers aren't helped by the fact that so few automakers sell them to begin with. The percentages start off skewed.